A report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that electricity production from renewable sources worldwide will double within five years, after already doubling in recent years. However, even if this forecast is realized, the world will not reach the target set at the climate conference.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published a new report presenting an optimistic and dramatic forecast: according to the report, the world is expected to add nearly 4,600 gigawatts (4.6 terawatts) of electricity generation and motor power from renewable energy between 2025 and 2030.
This is almost double the current renewable energy use, after the world doubled its clean energy use in the past five years.
Solar energy is at the forefront of the global transition to clean energy. The report estimates that solar energy will account for more than 75% of the expected growth in renewable sources. The global solar boom results from a combination of low equipment costs, relaxed regulation, and social acceptance of the technology.
It is estimated that about 2 terawatts of solar electricity will come from large-scale installation projects, while about 1.5 terawatts will come from small and distributed projects, such as panels on residential roofs, commercial buildings, and parking lots.
China leads the pace of installations, thanks to massive production capacity and rapid development. However, solar energy has become a global phenomenon: at least 29 countries currently generate more than 10% of their electricity from this clean source.
In addition to solar technologies, according to the report, electricity generation from onshore wind is expected to jump in the next five years from 505 gigawatts to 732 gigawatts; the offshore wind sector is expected to increase from 60 to 140 gigawatts.
In contrast, hydroelectric power, which has weakened in recent years, is expected, according to the report, to recover only modestly and not return to the high growth levels seen in the previous decade.
Despite all this, the report states that the world is still not meeting the target set at the 2023 Global Climate Conference: to triple renewable capacity by 2030. This challenge is expected to be at the center of discussions at the next climate conference in Brazil.
If the optimistic forecast in the new report comes true, it would represent a 160% increase in renewable energy production compared to 2023, not the 200% target set at the conference.
Reaching the 30 Percent Target
The energy ministry aims to reach a state by 2030 where about 30% of electricity is generated from renewable sources. So far, according to this target, the country should have already reached 20% renewable generation, but in practice, according to a local company, it reached 16%.
On the way to the ambitious target, the country focuses on solar energy production in distributed facilities panels and requires upgrades and expansion of the transmission grid.
The country benefits from high solar exposure, and local companies are significant players in the solar market, but it faces bureaucratic barriers, infrastructure issues, and delays in connecting ready facilities to the electricity grid.
In addition, there is a fundamental difficulty in freeing new land for solar projects and encouraging the installation of advanced storage systems that will allow the use of solar electricity even after sunset.